Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.402712 6.339121 7.372858 8.596369 10.002530 11.565516 13.431880
2025-08-03 3.905099 5.150664 6.673924 8.662946 11.179458 14.244142 18.244357
2025-08-10 2.846862 4.156226 5.904627 8.385070 11.783747 16.242973 22.495188
2025-08-17 2.113939 3.377911 5.201539 7.981862 12.060247 17.758419 26.238645
2025-08-24 1.675974 2.901635 4.794624 7.867024 12.645318 19.686770 30.703855
2025-08-31 1.363525 2.540551 4.474443 7.794675 13.233798 21.633545 35.361745
2025-09-07 1.193299 2.373151 4.420294 8.111587 14.436190 24.603208 41.847261
2025-09-14 1.015277 2.151155 4.228438 8.153872 15.171940 26.887382 47.457584
2025-09-21 0.869270 1.956670 4.047023 8.175210 15.854438 29.129000 53.190840
2025-09-28 0.748914 1.786701 3.879009 8.187249 16.505780 31.361614 59.097085
2025-10-05 0.720561 1.803732 4.074714 8.912904 18.541124 36.192955 69.937913
2025-10-12 0.654629 1.723817 4.059288 9.214387 19.798657 39.733808 78.778482
2025-10-19 0.597174 1.655186 4.063516 9.571025 21.234787 43.795892 89.048384
2025-10-26 0.521385 1.526279 3.915860 9.587981 21.996025 46.670535 97.396834
2025-11-02 0.435510 1.351375 3.632408 9.263252 22.005006 48.081993 103.074196
2025-11-09 0.357296 1.177049 3.317385 8.814701 21.684766 48.791804 107.422247
2025-11-16 0.307645 1.070634 3.150226 8.686497 22.049736 50.926491 114.806220
2025-11-23 0.267469 0.981955 3.012103 8.606408 22.509864 53.295680 122.865824
2025-11-30 0.249175 0.957312 3.041375 8.952910 24.007219 58.023491 136.262020
2025-12-07 0.222223 0.897134 2.960551 8.999056 24.783923 61.230884 146.648665
2025-12-14 0.197914 0.839427 2.876129 9.022358 25.505195 64.374603 157.145707
2025-12-21 0.176326 0.785451 2.792714 9.035514 26.200881 67.518063 167.888885
2025-12-28 0.177038 0.815719 2.974782 9.829197 28.998721 75.784228 190.801772